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Power conquered the courses, but can he survive the ovals?Autoracing Betting Lines08/23/2010 - Sonoma, CA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Will Power has undoubtedly established himself as the king of the road/street courses in the IZOD IndyCar Series this year, but can the Team Penske driver hang on to win the series championship with the last four races of the season contested on ovals, beginning with next Saturday night's race at Chicagoland Speedway? Power won five of the nine road/street course events this season, widening his championship lead to 59 points over defending series titleholder Dario Franchitti after winning Sunday's race at Infineon Raceway at Sonoma in dominating fashion. Power started on the pole for the record eighth time this season, then led all but two of the 75 laps in the final road/street course race of the season. While Power celebrated his win by toasting the fans with the customary wine goblet in Sonoma's victory circle, he also received the Mario Andretti Road Course Championship award. Two weeks ago, Power finished second at Mid-Ohio Sports Car Course and clinched the series' first-ever road/street course title. Earlier this year, the series sanctioning body, Indy Racing League, announced it would expand its championship format, with the highest-scoring oval and road/street course drivers winning separate titles, beginning this season. The oval title will be decided in the penultimate race of the season on September 19 at Twin Ring Motegi in Japan. The October 2 season-finale at Homestead-Miami Speedway likely will determine the overall IndyCar champion. Even though Power showed he was the best on the courses this year, he is not as dominant on the ovals. His best finish in 16 career oval starts is fifth, which came three times, most recently in the June 20 race at Iowa Speedway. "We've just got to keep going hard, and we can't relax," Power said. "We've got a bit of a buffer now going into those last four ovals, but I'm going to race like I want to win it. I'm going to be like I have been all year -- no mistakes, just get everything right." Power drove for KV Racing Technology during his 2008 rookie season, but emerged as a superstar in IndyCar when he came on board with Penske for a part-time schedule during the 2009 season. Power first served as substitute driver for Helio Castroneves until his federal tax evasion problems were resolved. Castroneves returned to racing for the second race of the season on the streets of Long Beach, CA, with Power moving to a third Penske entry and running a limited schedule thereafter. He notched his first IndyCar win on the Edmonton street/airport course in July '09. His successful 2010 came soon after his career nearly came to an end one year ago at Sonoma, where he sustained multiple injuries during a practice crash. He suffered two broken vertebrae and a concussion when his car hit the stalled car of Nelson Philippe, who spun exiting the blind, downhill corner. Power sat out the remainder of the '09 season, but after making a full recovery, he was elevated to full-time status with Penske for 2010. It's been a remarkable comeback for the 29-year-old Australian, who kicked off this season by winning the March 14 inaugural IndyCar race in Sao Paulo, Brazil. He's the only driver who has led in the championship standings so far this year. Can Power protect his points lead at Chicagoland, Kentucky Speedway, Motegi and Homestead to capture his first series championship? That will depend on how well Franchitti and his Chip Ganassi Racing teammate, Scott Dixon, perform in the last four races. Dixon, the 2008 IndyCar champion, currently is 95 points behind Power, but remains in the title hunt. Dixon and Franchitti have dominated the ovals lately. The duo have combined for eight oval wins since they paired at Ganassi at the conclusion of the 2008 season. "It's a fairly large [points] deficit, but it's four tracks we've run well on," Franchitti said. "We've won at Chicago. [Dixon] won in Japan. We both won at Homestead. We won at Kentucky as a team. I haven't won at Kentucky personally. There's places we can do very well at. "I don't underestimate the challenge at all. Will is going to be quite strong. People are writing him off because of his lack of experience on the ovals, but he'll be right up there. We have to do a better job. We'll be pushing 100 percent." After the first four oval races this season -- Kansas Speedway, Indianapolis Motor Speedway, Texas Motor Speedway and Iowa -- Dixon holds a slim three- point advantage over Franchitti in the oval championship battle. "Both Dario and myself have done extremely well on the one-and-a-half-mile circuits, especially the ones we have left," Dixon said. "I think I have five second-place finishes at Chicago. Hopefully, we can turn that into a win for a change, and try and just keep Will back in the pack and take some points off him." Dixon and Franchitti have won the IndyCar championship for Ganassi the past two seasons, but is this the year that Penske has the "power" to take the title? The quest to answer that question will sure make things interesting for remainder of the season.
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Sportsbook Betting LinesWho Makes the Sportsbook Betting Lines?Las Vegas Sports Consultants (LVSC) is the world’s premier oddsmaking company and the most respected authority on making the lines. Mike Seba is a Senior Oddsmaker at LVSC and has been making lines for the last six years. In our extended interview, Seba explained that there are 4-5 oddsmakers assigned to make lines for each of the major sports (pro & college football and basketball; MLB, NHL, boxing, golf). Each of these oddsmakers bring unique opinions, strengths and weaknesses to the process. Oddsmakers at LVSC are professional sports junkies who love what they do and would probably do it for nothing if you asked them, but they do get paid for it. By necessity their approach is very research-oriented and concise, since with millions of dollars at risk there is little margin for error. “You either have a passion for it or you don’t,” Seba said. “The #1 thing for us is to make a line for each game that creates good two-way action. We do this by drawing from past experiences and applying them to current situations. People think it’s much more complicated, but it’s not. “What are the Football Betting Lines Trying to Accomplish?There is a common misconception that point spreads represent the oddsmakers’ prediction of how many points the favorite will win by. That is not the case at all – their intent is NOT to evenly split the ATS result between the teams; rather, their goal is to attract equal betting action on both sides. Stated another way, they want to create a line that half the people find appealing to bet one way while the other half find it appealing to bet the other way (known as ‘dividing the action’).Divided action means the sportsbook is guaranteed a profit on the game because of the fee charged to the bettor (called juice or vig – typically $11 bet to win $10). How the Opening Line Is MadeThe opening line is the first line created by the oddsmakers, which is then sent out to sportsbooks. Of course there is an entire method to the madness on how the opening line is created. Seba explained that it all starts with each oddsmaker creating a line on each game based upon their own personal approach. This usually includes having up-to-date power ratings on each team.Power ratings are the oddsmaker’s value of each team and are used as a guide to calculate a "preliminary" pointspread on an upcoming game. The power ratings are adjusted after each game a team plays. Examples of non-game factors that would require an adjustment to a team's power rating are key player injuries and player trades. Once a game’s power rating based pointspread is determined, the oddsmaker will make adjustments to that line after considering each team's most recent games played and previous games played against that opponent. Also, adjustments are made after reading each team’s local newspapers to get a sense of what the coaches & players are thinking going into the game.Since the oddsmaker’s ultimate goal is equally dividing the sports betting action, public perception and sportsbook betting patterns must be taken into account. For example, the public might have heavy betting interest week after week on a popular college football betting team such as USC. If an oddsmaker comes up with a preliminary line of USC -7, then an adjustment up to -7.5 or -8 would be made in response to the public’s expected USC bias. The last step in the line-making process for each oddsmaker is taking one final look to determine whether or not the line "feels right." This is where common sense and past experience with how games are bet enters into the picture.A round-table discussion among the 4-5 oddsmakers involved in making the line for each sport is then conducted and a consensus line is decided upon by the Odds Director before it is released to the sportsbooks. Of the 4-5 oddsmakers, generally the 2 most respected opinions are weighed more heavily by the Odds Director before he decides on the final line. Why Sports Betting Lines ChangeOnce the opening line is released by LVSC, the individual sportsbooks decide if they want to make any adjustments before offering it to the public. Reasons for such adjustments include:Experts working for the individual books having a strong opinion on the game Individual books having players who consistently bet with certain tendencies (such as an extreme bias toward favorites or toward a certain popular team like USC)The purpose of these adjustments, like all line adjustments, is to more equally divide the betting action. Once betting begins, sportsbooks can adjust the line at any time. In doing so they attempt to make more attractive the team that is getting less action. By moving the line, sportsbooks can influence how the public bets on a particular game.For example, if the pointspread on a game is 7 and most of the money is coming in on the underdog (taking the +7), sportsbooks will then move the number down to 6 ½ to try and attract money on the favorite. Moving the line is the oddsmaker's effort to balance betting action, and often times such moves can have a major impact on a bettor’s decision. Oddsmakers can also change the line depending on various event-related factors such as player injuries or weather. Obviously, if the line comes out a week ahead of the event (which is the case in football), there is much that could happen during the week leading up to the event that could affect the line. Oddsmakers have to determine if any changes are necessary and send out an "adjusted line."“The main objective is that our clients get equal action on both sides,” Seba said. “We’re not trying to pick the team that covers the spread, we’re trying to make it a coin flip, a tough decision (for the bettor). If we’ve done that, we’ve done our job.” To visit this internet sportsbook got to MySportsbook.com for all your sports betting needs and World Series odds. Numerous College Basketball teams take final big step to March Madness betting So, what turned on the lock spigot? Well, after what felt like weeks of teams treading water and slipping back into the bubble muck, a bunch of them finally decided to say "to heck with parity" and won games that should put them into the Big Dance. Disagree with some of these? Then here's the challenge. Take all of the "should be ins" and make a legit case that each should be ahead of the team that's a lock. Then find 10 more teams that also should be placed in the bracket ahead of that lock team. Not so easy, is it? If you want more evidence that these locks should be good to go, check out what our research department dug up. Since the NCAA Tournament went to 64 teams in 1985, only six teams from a "big six" conference have had a record of 10-6 or better in conference play and not been selected: Colorado (2004) and Nebraska (1999) from the Big 12, Boston College and Seton Hall (both 2003) from the Big East, Indiana (2005) from the Big Ten and UCLA, which somehow went 12-6 in the Pac-10 in 1988 and still missed out. (Note: Five teams went 11-7 and didn't get in, the latest being last season's Stanford team, which had a brutal nonconference run.) Yes, 10 conference wins doesn't always mean what it used to because of unbalanced schedules, but this season, it should be plenty good in all but the extreme cases (see: Iowa). In a way, this is a welcome development, because this is a bubble watch, not a lock watch. We can finally be done with teams like Maryland and Virginia Tech and start really bearing down on at-large battles such as Syracuse-West Virginia and Appalachian State-Georgia Tech. Interestingly, all the shifting of teams into lock status appears to be more administrative than impactful. The number of remaining available at-larges didn't change one iota. The only difference is that teams on the bubble now have a clearer idea of which team(s) they are competing with for those precious bids.
As always, I've tried to be as inclusive as possible while only including teams that would have a reasonable chance of at least being discussed if this were Selection Sunday. If your team's not on here, there's probably a good reason (or three) -- start with the RPI and SOS numbers and work your way down. (Please remember, per selection committee criteria, that records displayed are Division I only. Next update: Feb. 28) If you have a legitimate grievance, or just like talking bubble, send an e-mail. Polite ones with fact-based arguments have a much better chance of receiving a response. I apologize in advance if I can't get back to all of you. Atlantic Coast Conference Work left to do: Clemson, Florida State, Georgia Tech
Work left to do: Clemson [19-9 (5-9), RPI: 41, SOS: 42] The Tigers are closer to locking up the collapse of the year award (in a good battle with OK State) than they are to grabbing an at-large. Clemson's been very competitive, but there's no really positive way you can spin nine losses in 11 games. They now cannot get to .500 in ACC play and still must head to Virginia Tech in the season finale (after hosting Miami). Unless the Tigers win both and/or do some serious work in the ACC tourney, they very well could be left out. There are no great nonconference wins, but ODU, App State, Miss. State, South Carolina and Georgia are all respectable W's. Florida State [18-11 (6-9), RPI: 48, SOS: 14] The Noles got thrashed at Maryland to run their losing streak to five, but then pounded NC State at home to set the table for what likely is an elimination game at Miami. You can at least make a case for the Seminoles at 7-9 in ACC play (and some work in the ACC tourney), but 6-10 is not going to cut it. Wins at Duke and over Florida will resonate, but the computer numbers remain questionable. Beyond Florida, FSU thrashed bubble buddy Providence, but there's not a ton beyond those two games that will help. They didn't show well in big-time opportunities against Pitt and Wisconsin (before the Florida win). Georgia Tech [18-10 (6-8), RPI: 51, SOS: 46] The Jackets beat Wake on Wednesday but couldn't get it done at UVa on Saturday, which could be a crucial loss with UNC and BC (both at home) remaining and 8-8 almost a certain need for at-large consideration. A nonconference win over Memphis helps, but the RPI and SOS are not at-large quality right now; if you combine those with a sub-.500 ACC mark, that could spell NIT for GT. For more College Basketball betting lines go to MySportsbook.com Additional basketball lines can be found at: www.MySportsbook.com To visit this online sportsbook got to MySportsbook.com - this sportsbook accepts credit cards.
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